So Underrated They’re Overrated?

Mak­ing Sense of Late Ris­ers / Fall­ers in Fan­ta­sy Football

Back in 2011, I’d combed through the usu­al litany of fan­ta­sy foot­ball arti­cles & a lot of them, most notably Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate col­umn, men­tioned LeGar­rette Blount. So caught up in the allure of draft­ing an “under­rat­ed” play­er, I took Blount far high­er than he had rea­son to go. Blount fin­ished the year as the RB32, punc­tu­at­ed by a 2‑carry, 9‑yard per­for­mance in week 16, which saw me out of the fan­ta­sy playoffs.

Every fan­ta­sy draft cycle, we see a new round of LeGar­rette Blounts — sleep­ers that every arti­cle calls out, there­by increas­ing their aver­age-draft posi­tions (ADP) / expert con­sen­sus ranks (ECR). Inspired by a post on Red­dit titled Every­one is the great­est val­ue until they’re not, I was curi­ous as to whether these late ris­ers per­form to their new expec­ta­tions or remain underrated.

Spoil­er alert: while the Red­dit post sug­gest­ed ris­ers under­per­form, I found they’re large­ly rat­ed just right.

We define ris­ers as play­ers who saw sig­nif­i­cant ECR move­ment from the end of July to ear­ly Sep­tem­ber, when most peo­ple con­duct their fan­ta­sy drafts. That ECR val­ue is mapped to fan­ta­sy points & we define ris­ers as play­ers who saw their PPG jump up 0.3 points (~5 points over the full season).

That’s not to say these play­ers were nev­er val­ue-picks; they cer­tain­ly were in late July (& like through ear­ly August) when most of these arti­cles on under­rat­ed play­ers are pub­lished. How­ev­er, the data sug­gests that by the time most drafts hap­pen (late August / ear­ly Sept), that val­ue has been effec­tive­ly priced into the market.

Methodology

The method­ol­o­gy first starts with under­stand­ing the rela­tion­ship between ECR and fan­ta­sy points — ide­al­ly, this would be done via pro­jec­tions; how­ev­er, my ECR his­to­ry was lim­it­ed to the 2021–2025 sea­sons, with no pro­jec­tion his­to­ry. As shown below, it’s a sim­ple lin­ear mod­el trans­lat­ing ECR to fan­ta­sy points & then adjust­ing to a val­ue-above-worst-starter in a 12-man half-PPR league.

Using the above results, it’s a fair­ly triv­ial exer­cise of group­ing play­ers into ris­ers, neu­trals, and fallers.

Design Decisions

1. I pur­pose­ly exclud­ed fall­ers from my analy­sis; play­ers who fell were large­ly late-sea­son injuries & did not want them pol­lut­ing the sam­ple of neu­tral play­ers. While there were some legit­i­mate play­ers whose ECR fell due to non-injury rea­sons, iden­ti­fy­ing those required large amounts of man­u­al work to collect.
2. PPG was used over full-sea­son val­ue to bet­ter con­trol for ris­ers that bust­ed due to injury. The sam­ple of ris­ers is rel­a­tive­ly small & was being pol­lut­ed by play­ers like 2023 Justin Jef­fer­son. Jet­tas saw his ECR stock rise in August 2023 from 2.20 to 1.23, but unfor­tu­nate­ly spent much of the 2023 sea­son injured. PPG helps con­trol for that
3. Play­ers who were slat­ed to miss the first game were exclud­ed to keep the PPG met­ric robust (e.g. 2025 Rashee Rice).
4. Cut­off risers/fallers that were not at starter lev­el. While all of fan­ta­sy foot­ball is a crap­shoot, I find it real­ly flat­tens out after folks fill out their start­ing line­ups to the point where there’s min­i­mal dif­fer­ence between a 9th-round pick and a 10th. In my opin­ion, those rounds are best spent chas­ing Your Guys™

Conclusion

Giv­en that by the time most peo­ple draft in late August, there is no dis­cernible dif­fer­ence between the play­ers who rose through the expert-con­sen­sus ranks and those who were already there, I don’t have any rec­om­mend­ed course of action oth­er than pick your guys. For pos­ter­i­ty, see the biggest ris­ers and falls in 2026.

Biggest 2026 ECR-Implied PPG Risers

Fan­ta­syPros half-PPR ECR · Jul 31 to Aug 28, 2026 · top 10 with every posi­tion represented

Biggest 2026 ECR-Implied PPG Ris­ers. Fan­ta­syPros half-PPR ECR · Jul 31 to Aug 28, 2026 · top 10 with every posi­tion represented

Play­er	Rank	July ECR	Lat­est ECR	July expect­ed PPG	Lat­est expect­ed PPG	Implied PPG change	Lat­est val­ue vs starter
QB
Jalen HurtsPHI	1	58.4 / QB6	56.5 / QB6	19.5	19.6	+0.1	+1.9
RB
Ken­neth Walk­er IIIKC	1	30.6 / RB11	26.1 / RB10	13.4	13.9	+0.5	+4.5
D’An­dre SwiftCHI	2	61.1 / RB22	54.7 / RB19	11.0	11.4	+0.4	+2.0
James Cook IIIBUF	3	19.0 / RB6	16.0 / RB5	14.6	15.0	+0.4	+5.6
Bhayshul TutenJAC	4	72.4 / RB25	67.2 / RB24	10.3	10.6	+0.3	+1.2
Rha­mon­dre Steven­sonNE	5	82.4 / RB28	77.3 / RB27	9.7	10.0	+0.3	+0.6
WR
Malik NabersNYG	1	37.3 / WR19	24.5 / WR13	11.5	12.5	+1.0	+2.6
Chris OlaveNO	2	21.1 / WR12	18.0 / WR10	12.8	13.2	+0.3	+3.2
Jaylen Wad­dleDEN	3	38.5 / WR21	34.8 / WR17	11.4	11.7	+0.3	+1.8
TE
George Kit­tleSF	1	107.1 / TE10	98.9 / TE10	7.8	8.0	+0.2	+0.5

Posi­tion mix: QB 1 · RB 5 · WR 3 · TE 1. Top 10 by implied PPG change with one guar­an­teed slot per posi­tion; ranks are shown with­in posi­tion. Play­ers qual­i­fy with pos­i­tive starter val­ue at either end­point; injury- and sus­pen­sion-dri­ven mar­ket moves remain includ­ed. Data: Fan­ta­syPros via nflreadr; results via nfl­verse | Viz: @SaurabhOnTap

Biggest 2026 ECR-Implied PPG Fallers

Fan­ta­syPros half-PPR ECR · Jul 31 to Aug 28, 2026 · top 10 with every posi­tion represented

Biggest 2026 ECR-Implied PPG Fall­ers. Fan­ta­syPros half-PPR ECR · Jul 31 to Aug 28, 2026 · top 10 with every posi­tion represented

Play­er	Rank	July ECR	Lat­est ECR	July expect­ed PPG	Lat­est expect­ed PPG	Implied PPG change	Lat­est val­ue vs starter
QB
Jax­son DartNYG	1	92.9 / QB11	97.5 / QB12	18.0	17.7	−0.3	0.0
RB
Ash­ton Jean­tyLV	1	16.6 / RB5	26.4 / RB11	14.9	13.8	−1.1	+4.4
Chu­ba Hub­bardCAR	2	86.1 / RB30	98.9 / RB33	9.6	8.9	−0.6	−0.5
TreVey­on Hen­der­sonNE	3	63.4 / RB24	71.0 / RB25	10.8	10.4	−0.5	+1.0
Jere­miyah LoveARI	4	38.0 / RB12	41.4 / RB14	12.7	12.5	−0.3	+3.0
Cam Skat­te­boNYG	5	53.6 / RB19	57.4 / RB20	11.5	11.2	−0.3	+1.8
WR
Rashee RiceKC	1	19.6 / WR11	24.7 / WR14	13.0	12.5	−0.5	+2.6
Mike EvansSF	2	49.3 / WR25	56.2 / WR27	10.7	10.3	−0.4	+0.4
Ter­ry McLau­rinWAS	3	42.7 / WR22	47.2 / WR23	11.1	10.9	−0.3	+0.9
TE
Trey McBrideARI	1	18.4 / TE1	21.0 / TE2	11.8	11.6	−0.3	+4.0

Posi­tion mix: QB 1 · RB 5 · WR 3 · TE 1. Top 10 by implied PPG change with one guar­an­teed slot per posi­tion; ranks are shown with­in posi­tion. Play­ers qual­i­fy with pos­i­tive starter val­ue at either end­point; injury- and sus­pen­sion-dri­ven mar­ket moves remain includ­ed. Data: Fan­ta­syPros via nflreadr; results via nfl­verse | Viz: @SaurabhOnTap

Appendix

Biggest Preseason ECR Riser Successes

Active-game half-PPR PPG ver­sus final ECR expec­ta­tion · 2021–2025

Biggest Pre­sea­son ECR Ris­er Suc­cess­es. Active-game half-PPR PPG ver­sus final ECR expec­ta­tion · 2021–2025

Play­er	July ECR	Final ECR	Val­ue rise	Expect­ed PPG	Actu­al PPG	PPG vs expected	Active games
QB
Jay­den Daniels2024, WAS	90.0 / QB13	77.2 / QB11	0.7	19.3	21.1	+1.8	17
RB
Der­rick Hen­ry2024, BAL	40.9 / RB12	34.5 / RB11	0.5	12.7	19.2	+6.6	17
Chris­t­ian McCaf­frey2025, SF	15.2 / RB4	11.8 / RB4	0.4	15.2	21.5	+6.4	17
Alvin Kama­ra2024, NO	46.7 / RB13	40.7 / RB14	0.4	12.2	16.5	+4.4	14
Josh Jacobs2024, GB	48.3 / RB15	39.5 / RB12	0.7	12.2	16.2	+3.9	17
James Con­ner2024, ARI	70.4 / RB20	62.7 / RB18	0.4	10.7	14.1	+3.5	16
WR
George Pick­ens2025, DAL	69.5 / WR35	57.7 / WR28	0.6	10.4	14.3	+4.0	17
Amon-Ra St. Brown2023, DET	14.6 / WR9	11.2 / WR7	0.4	13.8	17.0	+3.2	16
Malik Nabers2024, NYG	44.5 / WR25	38.8 / WR23	0.4	11.5	14.5	+3.0	15
TE
Tyler War­ren2025, IND	124.2 / TE14	104.0 / TE10	0.6	7.8	8.9	+1.0	17

Posi­tion allo­ca­tion: QB 1 · RB 5 · WR 3 · TE 1. Rank­ings are with­in posi­tion, not an unre­strict­ed over­all top 10. Data: Fan­ta­syPros via nflreadr; results via nfl­verse | Viz: @SaurabhOnTap

Biggest Preseason ECR Riser Flops

Active-game half-PPR PPG ver­sus final ECR expec­ta­tion · 2021–2025

Biggest Pre­sea­son ECR Ris­er Flops. Active-game half-PPR PPG ver­sus final ECR expec­ta­tion · 2021–2025

Play­er	July ECR	Final ECR	Val­ue rise	Expect­ed PPG	Actu­al PPG	PPG vs expected	Active games
RB
Dame­on Pierce2023, HOU	66.1 / RB21	58.7 / RB16	0.5	11.3	5.0	−6.3	14
Chase Edmonds2022, MIA	72.0 / RB29	59.0 / RB25	0.9	11.3	5.1	−6.2	13
Isi­ah Pacheco2024, KC	34.7 / RB9	30.9 / RB8	0.3	13.0	7.3	−5.7	7
Raheem Mostert2024, MIA	91.2 / RB27	80.4 / RB26	0.5	9.7	4.7	−5.0	13
Trey Ser­mon2021, SF	105.6 / RB37	90.1 / RB30	0.7	9.3	4.5	−4.9	6
WR
Calvin Rid­ley2025, TEN	68.4 / WR33	56.6 / WR27	0.6	10.4	5.5	−4.9	7
Xavier Wor­thy2025, KC	61.7 / WR29	55.0 / WR26	0.4	10.5	6.3	−4.2	14
Allen Robin­son II2022, LAR	58.3 / WR24	50.3 / WR21	0.4	10.6	6.8	−3.8	10
TE
Dar­ren Waller2023, NYG	76.1 / TE7	61.2 / TE4	0.6	9.1	7.3	−1.9	12
Daw­son Knox2022, BUF	122.1 / TE13	108.5 / TE11	0.3	7.9	7.4	−0.5	15

Posi­tion allo­ca­tion: RB 5 · WR 3 · TE 2. Rank­ings are with­in posi­tion, not an unre­strict­ed over­all top 10. Data: Fan­ta­syPros via nflreadr; results via nfl­verse | Viz: @SaurabhOnTap