How Big a Fish in How Big a Pond?

Choos­ing Mid-Draft Receivers and Beyond

tl;dr

Whether it’s auc­tion or snake, I gen­er­al­ly find myself opt­ing for a RB heavy strat­e­gy — Henry+Achane last year, Bijan+Kelce the year before, CMC+Mixon before that. As with all RB heavy strate­gies, pick­ing out the mid-draft WRs is a chal­lenge, often choos­ing between a grouped of flawed receivers — ques­tion­able QB sit­u­a­tions (e.g. DK Met­calf, Car­nell Tate), crowd­ed receiv­er rooms (e.g. Bri­an Thomas Jr), or both (Mar­vin Har­ris Jr).

All this to ask the ques­tion: when look­ing for receiver/tight end val­ue in the mid­dle of the draft, are you bet­ter off with the pri­ma­ry receiv­er on a below-aver­age pass­ing offense or the sec­ondary receiv­er on an above-aver­age one?

At sim­i­lar ranks (defined by expert con­sen­sus rank, ECR), we find that sec­ondary pass catch­ers in an offense out­per­form pri­ma­ry ones at a sim­i­lar rank.

Table 1. Draft-round rec­om­men­da­tions from the 2021–2025 pri­ma­ry-ver­sus-sec­ondary comparison.

Draft round	Over­all picks	Play­er-sea­sons	Best aver­age outcome	Best upside (P80)	Best down­side (P20)
Round 1	1–12	Pri­ma­ry: 105 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 00 sea­sons	N/A	N/A	N/A
Round 2	13–24	Pri­ma­ry: 275 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 1LOW1 sea­sons	N/A	N/A	N/A
Round 3	25–36	Pri­ma­ry: 235 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 2LOW1 sea­sons	N/A	N/A	N/A
Round 4	37–48	Pri­ma­ry: 205 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 7LOW5 sea­sons	Pri­ma­ry +1.8 PPG80% CI +0.5 to +2.7Aver­age	Pri­ma­ry +2.6 PPG80% CI +2.1 to +3.8Upside · P80	Sec­ondary +0.0 PPG80% CI ‑2.5 to +2.0Down­side · P20
Round 5	49–60	Pri­ma­ry: 205 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 104 sea­sons	Sec­ondary +1.6 PPG80% CI +0.3 to +2.3Aver­age	Sec­ondary +1.7 PPG80% CI ‑1.3 to +3.2Upside · P80	Pri­ma­ry +0.8 PPG80% CI ‑0.9 to +1.5Down­side · P20
Round 6	61–72	Pri­ma­ry: 145 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 155 sea­sons	Sec­ondary +0.4 PPG80% CI ‑1.0 to +1.6Aver­age	Sec­ondary +0.3 PPG80% CI ‑0.7 to +2.9Upside · P80	Pri­ma­ry +0.5 PPG80% CI ‑0.4 to +1.9Down­side · P20
Round 7	73–84	Pri­ma­ry: 155 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 165 sea­sons	Sec­ondary +2.2 PPG80% CI +0.6 to +4.1Aver­age	Sec­ondary +3.1 PPG80% CI ‑1.5 to +6.8Upside · P80	Sec­ondary +2.1 PPG80% CI +0.0 to +3.2Down­side · P20
Round 8	85–96	Pri­ma­ry: 9LOW4 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 135 sea­sons	Sec­ondary +0.8 PPG80% CI +0.4 to +1.2Aver­age	Pri­ma­ry +1.0 PPG80% CI ‑0.6 to +2.1Upside · P80	Sec­ondary +2.7 PPG80% CI +1.1 to +3.7Down­side · P20
Round 9	97–108	Pri­ma­ry: 7LOW4 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 155 sea­sons	Sec­ondary +0.9 PPG80% CI ‑0.9 to +2.1Aver­age	Sec­ondary +0.5 PPG80% CI ‑0.9 to +1.8Upside · P80	Sec­ondary +1.5 PPG80% CI ‑0.6 to +4.0Down­side · P20
Round 10	109–120	Pri­ma­ry: 7LOW3 sea­sonsSec­ondary: 185 sea­sons	Sec­ondary +0.9 PPG80% CI ‑1.7 to +3.1Aver­age	Pri­ma­ry +0.1 PPG80% CI ‑3.8 to +0.2Upside · P80	Sec­ondary +1.1 PPG80% CI ‑3.2 to +2.7Down­side · P20

Table 1. Draft-round rec­om­men­da­tions from the 2021–2025 pri­ma­ry-ver­sus-sec­ondary comparison.

Edge is the rec­om­mend­ed arche­type minus the alter­na­tive in that exact round. P20/P80 are out­come per­centiles; inter­vals show esti­ma­tion uncer­tain­ty. LOW marks a role with few­er than 10 play­er-sea­sons. N/A means either role had few­er than 6 play­er-sea­sons or three sea­sons in that exact round.

The most promi­nent exam­ple of this is Coop­er Kupp’s 2021 sea­son, where he was ranked as the ~WR17, slight­ly after team­mate Robert Woods, but fin­ished as the num­ber 1 ranked receiver.

We saw both sides of this last year. Sup­posed sec­ondary receivers Rome Odun­ze & George Pick­ens out­per­formed DJ Moore & CeeDee Lamb respec­tive­ly. On the flip side, Zay Flow­ers & Cort­land Sut­ton out­per­formed their pre-sea­son ranks swal­low­ing up would-be tar­gets for Mark Andrews & Evan Engram.

Methodology

Due to data lim­i­ta­tions, only expert con­sen­sus ranks were avail­able for sea­sons 2021 to 2025 (both posi­tion­al & over­all) from Fan­ta­sy Pros via nflreadr. Posi­tion­al ECR was also avail­able via Fan­ta­sy Pros as well. Those rank­ings need­ed to be trans­lat­ed to expect­ed points as a proxy for pro­jec­tions, which was done via a sim­ple log-lin­ear mod­el with a sea­son fixed effect, see below in (1)

The result is seen below visu­al­ly in Fig­ure 1.

Using the log-lin­ear ECR described above, we cre­ate an empir­i­cal dis­tri­b­u­tion of the per­for­mance against expec­ta­tions pooled by pri­ma­ry & sec­ondary pass catch­ers in a ±12 pick win­dow (e.g. for pick 45 the out­come dis­tri­b­u­tion is based on play­ers with ECRs between 33 and 57).

Plot­ting the dis­tri­b­u­tions lin­ear­ly at each pick leads to Fig­ure 3 below, sug­gest­ing that the mean pass catch­er out­come for sec­ondary receivers is bet­ter than pri­ma­ry ones. Pri­ma­ry receivers do offer slight­ly less down­side toward the top of the draft, how­ev­er, a P20 out­come for a round 4–6 receiv­er can like­ly be found on the waiv­er wire (e.g. 2025 Jer­ry Jeudy).

Discussion

Table 2. Top five pri­ma­ry pass-catch­er out­per­form­ers and under­per­form­ers, 2021–2025.

Play­er	Pos. ECR → PPG rank	Over­all ECR	Expect­ed PPG	Actu­al PPG	PPG vs ECR	Games	Oth­er pre­sea­son top-three team pass catchers
Top 5 outperformers
Mark Andrews2021 · BAL	TE4 → TE1	67.7	9.3	14.3	+5.0	17	Mar­quise Brown (Sec­ondary, WR53, ECR 145.5) • Rashod Bate­man (Ter­tiary+, WR68, ECR 186.0)
DJ Moore2023 · CHI	WR21 → WR11	56.0	10.3	14.0	+3.8	17	Dar­nell Mooney (Sec­ondary, WR59, ECR 141.0) • Cole Kmet (Ter­tiary+, TE15, ECR 159.2)
Dee­bo Samuel2023 · SF	WR19 → WR9	54.3	10.5	14.2	+3.7	15	Bran­don Aiyuk (Sec­ondary, WR28, ECR 64.4) • George Kit­tle (Ter­tiary+, TE5, ECR 86.1)
Malik Nabers2024 · NYG	WR23 → WR8	55.5	11.1	14.5	+3.4	15	Wan’­Dale Robin­son (Sec­ondary, WR69, ECR 179.6) • Jalin Hyatt (Ter­tiary+, WR82, ECR 206.3)
Dion­tae John­son2021 · PIT	WR20 → WR10	53.5	10.6	13.7	+3.1	16	Chase Clay­pool (Sec­ondary, WR26, ECR 80.2) • JuJu Smith-Schus­ter (Ter­tiary+, WR27, ECR 81.6)
Top 5 underperformers
Dion­tae John­son2022 · PIT	WR15 → WR49	49.2	11.8	7.9	-4.0	17	Pat Freier­muth (Sec­ondary, TE11, ECR 123.2) • Chase Clay­pool (Ter­tiary+, WR46, ECR 135.1)
Xavier Wor­thy2025 · KC	WR25 → WR59	73.7	9.9	6.3	-3.5	14	Rashee Rice (Sec­ondary, WR33, ECR 90.2) • Travis Kelce (Ter­tiary+, TE6, ECR 95.3)
Jer­ry Jeudy2021 · DEN	WR28 → WR69	82.0	9.9	6.6	-3.3	10	Court­land Sut­ton (Sec­ondary, WR33, ECR 88.8) • Noah Fant (Ter­tiary+, TE7, ECR 97.7)
Dar­nell Mooney2022 · CHI	WR24 → WR53	72.8	10.7	7.4	-3.3	11	Cole Kmet (Sec­ondary, TE10, ECR 121.8) • Byron Pringle (Ter­tiary+, WR90, ECR 223.4)
Dal­ton Kin­caid2024 · BUF	TE5 → TE22	83.5	9.2	6.1	-3.2	13	Keon Cole­man (Sec­ondary, WR51, ECR 134.1) • Khalil Shakir (Ter­tiary+, WR54, ECR 143.0)

Table 2. Top five pri­ma­ry pass-catch­er out­per­form­ers and under­per­form­ers, 2021–2025.

Posi­tion­al rank is pre­sea­son posi­tion­al ECR → final active-game PPG rank among same-posi­tion play­ers with at least eight active games. PPG vs ECR is actu­al PPG minus the cross-fit­ted season/position expectation.

Table 3. Top five sec­ondary pass-catch­er out­per­form­ers and under­per­form­ers, 2021–2025.

Play­er	Pos. ECR → PPG rank	Over­all ECR	Expect­ed PPG	Actu­al PPG	PPG vs ECR	Games	Oth­er pre­sea­son top-three team pass catchers
Top 5 outperformers
Coop­er Kupp2021 · LAR	WR17 → WR1	51.8	10.5	21.5	+10.9	17	Robert Woods (Pri­ma­ry, WR13, ECR 43.8) • Tyler Hig­bee (Ter­tiary+, TE11, ECR 114.2)
Ja’­Marr Chase2021 · CIN	WR30 → WR5	83.5	9.3	15.5	+6.3	17	Tee Hig­gins (Pri­ma­ry, WR22, ECR 65.0) • Tyler Boyd (Ter­tiary+, WR32, ECR 84.7)
Mike Evans2023 · TB	WR33 → WR8	76.8	9.4	14.3	+4.9	17	Chris God­win (Pri­ma­ry, WR20, ECR 55.8) • Rus­sell Gage (Ter­tiary+, WR96, ECR 212.6)
Tee Hig­gins2024 · CIN	WR29 → WR3	72.4	10.7	15.5	+4.8	12	Ja’­Marr Chase (Pri­ma­ry, WR4, ECR 13.5) • Jer­maine Bur­ton (Ter­tiary+, WR77, ECR 200.4)
George Pick­ens2025 · DAL	WR28 → WR6	77.1	9.5	14.3	+4.8	17	CeeDee Lamb (Pri­ma­ry, WR2, ECR 11.5) • Jake Fer­gu­son (Ter­tiary+, TE12, ECR 125.0)
Top 5 underperformers
Julio Jones2021 · TEN	WR21 → WR72	55.3	10.8	6.5	-4.3	10	A.J. Brown (Pri­ma­ry, WR8, ECR 27.2) • Antho­ny Firkser (Ter­tiary+, TE24, ECR 179.9)
Allen Robin­son II2022 · LAR	WR21 → WR60	63.2	10.8	6.8	-3.9	10	Coop­er Kupp (Pri­ma­ry, WR2, ECR 12.2) • Tyler Hig­bee (Ter­tiary+, TE20, ECR 171.4)
Jahan Dot­son2023 · WAS	WR34 → WR72	81.0	9.7	5.9	-3.8	17	Ter­ry McLau­rin (Pri­ma­ry, WR27, ECR 62.6) • Cur­tis Samuel (Ter­tiary+, WR70, ECR 174.0)
Dee­bo Samuel Sr.2024 · SF	WR19 → WR47	51.3	11.6	8.5	-3.1	15	Bran­don Aiyuk (Pri­ma­ry, WR18, ECR 48.7) • George Kit­tle (Ter­tiary+, TE8, ECR 104.0)
Rob­by Ander­son2021 · CAR	WR29 → WR70	81.5	9.2	6.6	-2.6	17	D.J. Moore (Pri­ma­ry, WR18, ECR 52.2) • Ter­race Mar­shall Jr. (Ter­tiary+, WR69, ECR 185.6)

Table 3. Top five sec­ondary pass-catch­er out­per­form­ers and under­per­form­ers, 2021–2025.

Posi­tion­al rank is pre­sea­son posi­tion­al ECR → final active-game PPG rank among same-posi­tion play­ers with at least eight active games. PPG vs ECR is actu­al PPG minus the cross-fit­ted season/position expectation.

Look­ing at the biggest over/under per­form­ers by arche­type over the five years, a few things stand out. The sec­ondary over­per­form­ers large­ly offer more upside than the pri­ma­ry over­per­form­ers, head­lined by 2021 Coop­er Kupp. Rook­ies under­stand­ably offer a lot more volatil­i­ty regard­less of role (e.g. Chase & Nabers) Sec­ondary receivers that ben­e­fit­ted from the pri­ma­ry receiv­er being out (e.g. George Pick­ens in 23.1 half-PPR PPG in games with­out CeeDee vs 12.6 with).

Table 4. Change in pass-catch­er pro­duc­tion when the paired pri­ma­ry or sec­ondary pass catch­er is absent.

Role	Game state	PPG coun­ter­part active	PPG coun­ter­part out	PPG change	Tar­get change	Catch change	Yard change	TD change	Paired sam­ple
Mod­ern val­i­da­tion · 2021–2025
Sec­ondary	Sec­ondary active; pri­ma­ry out	9.4	12.3	+2.980% CI +1.8 to +4.0	+0.8	+0.7	+11.4	+0.22	49 play­er-sea­sons192 out-games
Pri­ma­ry	Pri­ma­ry active; sec­ondary out	11.8	12.2	+0.480% CI ‑0.4 to +1.2	+0.1	+0.1	+3.2	+0.03	95 play­er-sea­sons365 out-games
Full snap his­to­ry · 2013–2025
Sec­ondary	Sec­ondary active; pri­ma­ry out	8.5	9.6	+1.180% CI +0.6 to +1.6	+0.8	+0.5	+4.7	+0.07	210 play­er-sea­sons795 out-games
Pri­ma­ry	Pri­ma­ry active; sec­ondary out	11.5	11.6	+0.080% CI ‑0.5 to +0.5	+0.1	-0.0	+1.7	-0.00	228 play­er-sea­sons972 out-games

Table 4. Change in pass-catch­er pro­duc­tion when the paired pri­ma­ry or sec­ondary pass catch­er is absent.

Each focal play­er-sea­son must con­tain at least one game in both states, and the focal play­er must record an offen­sive snap. Changes are coun­ter­part-out minus coun­ter­part-active aver­ages; the PPG inter­val is a 2,000-draw sea­son-clus­ter boot­strap. Asso­ci­a­tions are descrip­tive, not causal.

A por­tion of the upside sec­ondary receivers’ expe­ri­ence looks to be dri­ven by injury. Sec­ondary receivers have seen sig­nif­i­cant­ly bet­ter per­for­mance uplift when pri­ma­ry receivers are out than the reverse.

Table 5. 2026 pri­ma­ry and Sec­ondary+ draft options in Rounds 4–7.

Draft round	Picks	His­tor­i­cal support	2021–25 sig­nal	Cur­rent pri­ma­ry options	Cur­rent Sec­ondary+ options
Round 4	37–48	Min­i­mums: 6play­er-sea­sons per role	Aver­age: Pri­ma­ry +1.8Upside · P80: Pri­ma­ry +2.6Down­side · P20: Sec­ondary+ +0.0	Tetairoa McMil­lan · WR16 · ECR 36.5CAR · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Jalen Coker Gar­rett Wil­son · WR18 · ECR 38.6NYJ · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Adon­ai Mitchell Jaylen Wad­dle · WR19 · ECR 39.9DEN · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Court­land Sutton Ladd McConkey · WR20 · ECR 39.9LAC · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Quentin Johnston Eme­ka Egbu­ka · WR21 · ECR 40.2TB · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Chris God­win Jr. Col­ston Love­land · TE3 · ECR 41.4CHI · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Luther Bur­den III Ter­ry McLau­rin · WR22 · ECR 47.4WAS · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Ste­fon Diggs	Tee Hig­gins · WR17 · ECR 36.7CIN · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Ja’­Marr Chase
Round 5	49–60	Min­i­mums: 6/8/10play­er-sea­sons per role	Aver­age: Sec­ondary+ +1.6Upside · P80: Sec­ondary+ +1.7Down­side · P20: Pri­ma­ry +0.8	Tyler War­ren · TE4 · ECR 53.2IND · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Alec Pierce DJ Moore · WR26 · ECR 56.2BUF · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Dal­ton Kincaid Chris­t­ian Wat­son · WR27 · ECR 56.6GB · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Tuck­er Kraft Mike Evans · WR28 · ECR 57.1SF · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: George Kittle	Davante Adams · WR23 · ECR 50.1LAR · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Puka Nacua Luther Bur­den III · WR24 · ECR 51.6CHI · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Col­ston Loveland Jame­son Williams · WR25 · ECR 53.2DET · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Amon-Ra St. Brown Rome Odun­ze · WR29 · ECR 57.4CHI · Ter­tiary + · team #3 · Ahead: Col­ston Loveland
Round 6	61–72	Min­i­mums: 6/8/10play­er-sea­sons per role	Aver­age: Sec­ondary+ +0.4Upside · P80: Sec­ondary+ +0.3Down­side · P20: Pri­ma­ry +0.5	Park­er Wash­ing­ton · WR30 · ECR 69.4JAX · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Bri­an Thomas Jr.	Tuck­er Kraft · TE5 · ECR 71.2GB · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Chris­t­ian Watson
Round 7	73–84	Min­i­mums: 6/8/10play­er-sea­sons per role	Aver­age: Sec­ondary+ +1.7Upside · P80: Sec­ondary+ +3.1Down­side · P20: Sec­ondary+ +0.8	Car­nell Tate · WR31 · ECR 72.0TEN · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Wan’­Dale Robinson Harold Fan­nin Jr. · TE6 · ECR 79.2CLE · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: KC Concepcion DK Met­calf · WR34 · ECR 79.9PIT · Pri­ma­ry · team #1 · Next: Michael Pittman Jr.	Mar­vin Har­ri­son Jr. · WR32 · ECR 72.3ARI · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Trey McBride Bri­an Thomas Jr. · WR33 · ECR 77.7JAX · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Park­er Washington Sam LaPor­ta · TE7 · ECR 81.3DET · Ter­tiary + · team #3 · Ahead: Amon-Ra St. Brown Chris God­win Jr. · WR35 · ECR 82.5TB · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Eme­ka Egbuka Kyle Pitts Sr. · TE8 · ECR 83.8ATL · Sec­ondary · team #2 · Ahead: Drake London

Table 5. 2026 pri­ma­ry and Sec­ondary+ draft options in Rounds 4–7.

Roles rank each team’s WRs and TEs togeth­er by pre­sea­son ECR. Sec­ondary+ pools the sec­ond and lat­er pass catch­ers; each player’s exact Sec­ondary or Ter­tiary+ role remains labeled. Next iden­ti­fies the next-ranked team­mate for a pri­ma­ry; Ahead iden­ti­fies the high­er-ranked team­mate for a Sec­ondary+ option. His­tor­i­cal sig­nals use the same pooled definition.

Look­ing towards the 2026 expert con­sen­sus rank­ings, the mid­dle of the draft will bring the same ques­tions the above analy­sis seeks to answer. Per­son­al­ly, Tee Hig­gins (over Wil­son, Love­land), Odun­ze (over Evans, Wat­son), & Pitts (over Met­calf, Fan­nin) stand out as play­ers I’m targeting.

Conclusion

Recent trends show sec­ondary receivers offer bet­ter upside val­ue at sim­i­lar ECR val­ues as pri­ma­ry receivers. That said, I would clas­si­fy the above analy­sis as direc­tion­al, rather than pre­dic­tive. The analy­sis could be fur­ther through addi­tion­al ECR data & pro­jec­tions data & a non-empir­i­cal approach.

Appendix

While we do not have over­all ECR data before 2021, pos­i­toinal ECR is avail­able from 2012–2025. Only look­ing at wide receivers in that cohort, we also find sec­ondary receivers out­per­form pri­maries at sim­i­lar ECR values.